Frivolous-Walnut
0x08d49f9b709b2aabf0644a78b5e303c76fc01f2d
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$42.80
Total PnL
$-0.20
Realised
$0.02
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?
11 shares @ 97.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.16
$0.20
- NO
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
6 shares @ 86.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.26
$0.26
- NO
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
6 shares @ 89.5¢·now 77.1¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$4.69
$-0.75
- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
6 shares @ 86.7¢·now 77.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.44
$-0.56
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 93.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.20
$0.20
- NO
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
4 shares @ 97.8¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.04
$-0.06
- NO
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
3 shares @ 96.2¢·now 99.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$3.30
$0.10
- NO
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
2 shares @ 89.1¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.31
$0.21
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
2 shares @ 97.7¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.03
$0.03
- NO
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?
1 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$1.38
$0.15
Recent activity
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$0.00Jun 2, 14:14 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jun 2, 14:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?$0.00Jun 2, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?$5.17May 16, 00:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 25?$4.32May 14, 05:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump visit China by June 30?$4.76May 14, 05:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by April 30?$5.63May 14, 05:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$2.11May 14, 05:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by June 30?$4.00Apr 23, 02:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 25?$4.00Apr 20, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.00Apr 18, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$4.50Apr 18, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament?$2.83Apr 16, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament?$2.75Apr 12, 13:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?$5.80Apr 7, 14:23 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$0.78Apr 5, 19:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Polymarket mindshare hit 90%?$1.79Apr 4, 23:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$0.81Apr 2, 11:48 UTC
- REDEEMKraken IPO by March 31, 2026?$2.02Apr 2, 11:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill XRP dip to $1.20 in March?$3.19Apr 2, 11:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $98.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 21, 04:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 2, 14:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.