Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?
Probability
5¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-0.4pp
24h Vol
$109.20
Liquidity
$1.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1581h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $1.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1580.9h
- 15:05SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1581h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 2¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next UK general election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).