Leading-Retrospect
0x08fac382d5b442e8013b73b1353251acf0d63271
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$24.97
Total PnL
$-181.78
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
526 shares @ 19.0¢·now 3.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.11
$-82.89
- YES
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?
294 shares @ 1.7¢·now 1.6¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$4.56
$-0.44
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
45 shares @ 22.2¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.47
$-7.53
- YES
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?
238 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.4¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.83
$-4.17
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
1667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 3?
715 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-4.75
- YES
Will Trump say "Third term" in March?
714 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
394 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
93 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 27, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.