Careless-Initialize
0x09f2db95ffb009fc0dbdf29c640a7483f6981ef9
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
38
Open notional
$88.15
Total PnL
$-102.67
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- NO
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of July 6 above $440?
76 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$76.08
$0.08
- NO
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
12 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$12.08
$-0.02
- YES
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
2349 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30?
1600 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.20
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 25?
1392 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.78
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 25?
1244 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.49
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 6?
1100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 20?
1100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
1050 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 6?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of July 6 above $440?$76.00Jul 10, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$4.72Jul 10, 05:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $160 in June?$77.08Jul 10, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $160 in June?$77.00Jun 30, 09:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on June 1?$10.61Jun 30, 09:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on May 31?$10.81Jun 30, 09:19 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$59.06Jun 30, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$59.00Jun 1, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs$4.65Jun 1, 07:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$63.06Jun 1, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$63.00May 31, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: TDK vs OG (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Playoffs$3.46May 31, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on June 1?$10.60May 31, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30?$3.42May 30, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30?$1.60May 30, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?$4.28May 30, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30?$1.50May 30, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?$5.00May 30, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on May 31?$10.80May 30, 03:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28?$104.10May 30, 03:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $62.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 20, 03:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 05:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.