Formal-Deadline
0x0a069d155fca3907d7615bac99ab97712321921a
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
149
Open notional
$173.13
Total PnL
$-90.71
Realised
$9.47
Win rate
13%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 149- NO
Will Shrek 5 be delayed?
10 shares @ 73.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$7.80
$0.50
- YES
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?
9 shares @ 53.3¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$6.52
$1.92
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
36 shares @ 25.9¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.34
$-3.06
- NO
Will Spider-Man die in Avengers: Doomsday?
10 shares @ 55.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$5.95
$0.45
- NO
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
5 shares @ 87.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.66
$0.32
- NO
Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Khamzat Chimaev next?
5 shares @ 73.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 18, 2027$4.42
$0.78
- NO
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton engaged in 2026?
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.42
$3.38
- NO
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 61.3¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.36
$1.36
- NO
Will Trump praise Roger Penske in August?
12 shares @ 68.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.26
$-3.90
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?
23 shares @ 13.2¢·now 18.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$4.20
$1.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 19?$1.02Aug 18, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?$1.00Aug 18, 04:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?$1.03Aug 18, 04:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CXMT be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?$1.00Aug 18, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?$1.00Aug 18, 04:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 18, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?$2.86Aug 17, 22:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Future President" in August?$12.00Aug 17, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.04Aug 16, 15:37 UTC
- REDEEMUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$4.99Aug 16, 06:48 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$1.49Aug 16, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026?$1.04Aug 16, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$2.39Aug 15, 23:41 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$5.00Aug 15, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$1.11Aug 15, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.04Aug 15, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$1.04Aug 14, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?$1.04Aug 14, 23:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Border" 15+ times during remarks in New York?$12.00Aug 14, 22:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Crazy" during remarks in New York?$12.00Aug 14, 21:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
32 closed markets, 13% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $2.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 14, 00:01 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 04:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.