Needy-Justification-Shark
0x0a7926288a545db3d449105c3089183ca4d91cd5
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
67
Open notional
$49.21
Total PnL
$-122.78
Realised
$15.08
Win rate
69%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 67- YES
Will the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting?
22 shares @ 46.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$21.60
$11.60
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
67 shares @ 15.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$8.33
$-1.67
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
30 shares @ 33.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.82
$-3.18
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
8 shares @ 58.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.69
$-0.21
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
23 shares @ 10.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.42
$0.12
- YES
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
2 shares @ 58.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jan 16, 2027$1.46
$0.10
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
6 shares @ 17.8¢·now 25.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.42
$0.42
- YES
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.19
$0.19
- YES
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
26 shares @ 3.8¢·now 3.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.88
$-0.12
- YES
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
3 shares @ 33.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.29
$-0.71
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate hike in 2026?$1.25Jul 23, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?$1.46Jul 23, 14:55 UTC
- REDEEMChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?$66.67Jul 23, 14:49 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House$1.03Jul 18, 21:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$2.60Jul 18, 21:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$1.11Jul 14, 19:01 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$1.41Jul 14, 19:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$1.16Jul 12, 01:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $2.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.