Murky-Sleepiness
0x0a854897a06d4999e5b2dde5693609f1428ffe9d
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
7
Open notional
$248.2K
Total PnL
$-586.3K
Realised
$-354.3K
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1056379 shares @ 23.5¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$248.2K
$86.62
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
789160 shares @ 19.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-151.9K
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
550988 shares @ 9.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-52.1K
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
200012 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-16.6K
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
137858 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.6K
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
18158 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-363.17
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
3954 shares @ 10.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-412.91
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$747.83Jun 17, 17:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$0.06Jun 17, 17:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$0.06Jun 17, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$0.04Jun 17, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$0.03Jun 17, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$10.39Jun 17, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$0.04Jun 17, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$0.04Jun 17, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$0.06Jun 17, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$41.46Jun 17, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$25.25Jun 17, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$417.52Jun 17, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$311.67Jun 17, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$253.92Jun 17, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$116.44Jun 17, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$276.67Jun 17, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$310.83Jun 17, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$0.21Jun 17, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?$76.95Jun 17, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$0.05Jun 17, 17:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
9/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $188.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 15:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 17:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.