Key-Jogging
0x0a870b5596646413005b62a0b68ad5ce7d923e26
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$3.6K
Total PnL
$-414.12
Realised
$15.65
Win rate
88%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1005 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$997.46
$-2.51
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
853 shares @ 82.1¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$601.36
$-99.14
- NO
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
311 shares @ 96.4¢·now 97.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$304.61
$4.61
- NO
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
512 shares @ 84.3¢·now 59.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$302.34
$-129.19
- NO
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
303 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$299.82
$-0.40
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
266 shares @ 79.7¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$227.43
$15.37
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
212 shares @ 93.8¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$203.41
$4.66
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
213 shares @ 94.7¢·now 94.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$201.82
$0.12
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
222 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$200.91
$1.11
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
102 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$101.64
$1.68
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$99.83Jul 23, 08:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?$6.51Jul 22, 11:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?$4.65Jul 22, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?$20.08Jul 22, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$146.11Jul 22, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?$4.90Jul 22, 07:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$154.11Jul 21, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.0KJul 21, 21:58 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8.50Jul 20, 08:24 UTC
- REDEEMWorld Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?$447.49Jul 20, 08:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$721.00Jul 20, 08:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$216.20Jul 20, 04:40 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 20, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLLamine Yamal: 1+ shots$11.75Jul 19, 21:24 UTC
- TRADESELLLionel Messi: 1+ shots$0.01Jul 19, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$9.75Jul 19, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$92.63Jul 19, 18:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $110.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 22:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 08:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.