Jovial-Blossom
0x0ab606c8c8d7068f06cfc580d8499a1b381f8eef
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
59
Open notional
$2.2K
Total PnL
$886.22
Realised
$946.35
Win rate
89%
45 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 59- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
500 shares @ 31.9¢·now 30.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$154.75
$-4.52
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?
100 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$98.75
$0.75
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
100 shares @ 95.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$95.96
$0.95
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
100 shares @ 88.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$89.50
$1.50
- YES
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 76.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$70.50
$-5.50
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
80 shares @ 87.5¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$69.60
$-0.40
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
500 shares @ 13.4¢·now 12.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$63.25
$-3.75
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?
60 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$59.75
$0.24
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
82 shares @ 71.4¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$56.14
$-2.40
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
200 shares @ 26.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$51.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$25.20Jul 29, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$2.00Jul 29, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$2.35Jul 29, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$3.84Jul 29, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$1.79Jul 29, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$0.16Jul 29, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$0.26Jul 29, 20:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$2.17Jul 29, 20:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$100.00Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$59.51Jul 29, 19:59 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$49.85Jul 29, 19:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?$33.49Jul 29, 19:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?$33.49Jul 29, 18:40 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$47.00Jul 29, 16:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$1.83Jul 29, 16:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$0.02Jul 29, 16:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$0.01Jul 29, 16:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$2.31Jul 29, 15:52 UTC
- MERGEWill Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$12.85Jul 29, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?$4.88Jul 29, 15:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 45 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
45 closed markets, 89% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $12.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 21:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 45 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.