Intrepid-Circulation
0x0b2550e4a9b45e058d47ed8c2058f1bb4ce2439f
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
123
Open notional
$756.47
Total PnL
$-769.38
Realised
$156.04
Win rate
93%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 123- YES
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
426 shares @ 68.5¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$347.15
$55.21
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
121 shares @ 36.0¢·now 86.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$104.36
$60.85
- YES
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be less than 1600.00 at the end of December 2026?
160 shares @ 33.2¢·now 32.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$51.23
$-1.94
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
407 shares @ 5.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$30.52
$10.17
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
29 shares @ 38.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$28.20
$17.30
- YES
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?
189 shares @ 12.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$27.41
$4.67
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?
70 shares @ 27.1¢·now 37.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$26.25
$7.25
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
155 shares @ 9.5¢·now 16.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$25.50
$10.77
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
110 shares @ 13.3¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$14.84
$0.19
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
96 shares @ 12.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$14.34
$2.87
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?$13.00Jul 16, 04:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?$0.12Jun 27, 11:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$20.00Jun 17, 21:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$25.84Jun 12, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill BW Industrial Holdings not IPO before June 2026?$80.00Jun 1, 10:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?$40.99May 31, 20:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the May meeting?$5.00May 28, 22:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw?$5.50May 8, 23:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-08?$5.50May 8, 23:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11?$10.00May 6, 22:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11?$294.42May 6, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?$14.68May 4, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?$3.36May 4, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?$10.90May 4, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.61May 4, 09:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 3?$36.51May 3, 18:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Montedio Yamagata vs. Tochigi SC end in a draw?$9.91May 3, 09:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-05-03?$30.26May 3, 09:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Toulon win?$3.61May 2, 19:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Watford FC win on 2026-05-02?$20.71May 2, 17:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
93% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $26.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 2, 13:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 04:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.