Frayed-Deduce
0x0b5bdcf3091481205efa74f7b0e2cede8ac6c738
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$18.52
Total PnL
$-12.57
Realised
$-0.03
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
4 shares @ 78.2¢·now 82.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$3.17
$0.16
- NO
Imran Khan released from prison by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 72.4¢·now 67.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.96
$-0.24
- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?
4 shares @ 43.4¢·now 59.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$2.45
$0.66
- NO
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?
4 shares @ 53.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$1.66
$-0.52
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
1 shares @ 64.1¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.20
$0.29
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
1 shares @ 67.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$1.16
$0.16
- NO
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?
1 shares @ 82.8¢·now 91.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.10
$0.10
- NO
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
1 shares @ 86.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1 shares @ 78.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.98
$-0.02
- YES
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
1 shares @ 87.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.98
$-0.01
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$1.23Jul 26, 06:07 UTC
- TRADESELLClarity Act signed into law in 2026?$1.00Jul 25, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?$1.01Jul 25, 21:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$0.98Jul 25, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 25, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?$1.01Jul 25, 15:59 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$0.82Jul 25, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act signed into law in 2026?$1.01Jul 25, 10:59 UTC
- TRADESELLClarity Act signed into law in 2026?$1.03Jul 25, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?$1.00Jul 25, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$1.00Jul 25, 10:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$0.85Jul 25, 10:14 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?$1.26Jul 25, 10:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?$1.16Jul 25, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?$2.60Jul 25, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act signed into law in 2026?$1.03Jul 25, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?$1.01Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?$1.10Jul 24, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?$1.00Jul 24, 23:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?$1.00Jul 24, 23:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 20:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 06:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.