Inconsequential-Filly-Warrior
0x0c935d81782c0fa0192dd5d37df0f6c9f1d7aafa
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-197.78
Realised
$0.06
Win rate
29%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- NO
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?
256 shares @ 77.9¢·now 93.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$238.48
$39.04
- NO
Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31?
198 shares @ 90.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$186.92
$7.18
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
110 shares @ 76.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$89.82
$6.57
- NO
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?
90 shares @ 93.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$85.13
$1.35
- YES
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
317 shares @ 21.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$64.92
$-1.58
- YES
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?
676 shares @ 8.2¢·now 7.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$50.70
$-4.86
- YES
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
168 shares @ 34.4¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$48.02
$-9.97
- NO
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
37 shares @ 85.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.86
$0.37
- NO
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?
42 shares @ 65.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$28.85
$1.87
- YES
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?
35 shares @ 79.3¢·now 78.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$27.54
$-0.25
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?$0.61Aug 18, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYForeign intervention in Gaza by December 31?$10.47Aug 18, 11:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$3.73Aug 18, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$5.34Aug 18, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$12.06Aug 18, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$6.27Aug 18, 06:32 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by December 31?$28.77Aug 18, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$18.69Aug 18, 04:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31$20.97Aug 18, 04:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?$17.79Aug 18, 04:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?$6.03Aug 18, 04:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?$6.03Aug 18, 04:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?$0.95Aug 18, 04:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$7.77Aug 18, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$1.19Aug 18, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$26.15Aug 18, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$3.73Aug 18, 03:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$8.75Aug 18, 03:25 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?$7.24Aug 18, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$8.43Aug 18, 03:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $9.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 18:18 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 11:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.