U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
Probability
25¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$35.90
Liquidity
$24.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $24.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5976.5h
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 25¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 11¢0.0pp
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 26¢-0.5pp
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 19¢+0.5pp
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 17¢-0.5pp
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?
Other · Vol $4.76
- 14¢-1.0pp
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?
Other · Vol $34.12
- 17¢-0.5pp
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 14¢-1.5pp
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?
Other · Vol $16.48
- 13¢0.0pp
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.1pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $663.9K
- 5¢+0.3pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $568.9K
- 3¢+0.6pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $511.6K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $341.3K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $333.3K
- 1¢+0.1pp
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $316.8K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.