Wallet profile

Willing-Complaint

0x0cabe92fb1c20f206d58260d89590429a5d97489

activity 65/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

65/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

9

Open notional

$80.71

Total PnL

$-54.52

Realised

$0.89

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

Recent activity

  • TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$9.35Jul 4, 00:49 UTC
  • TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.04Jul 4, 00:24 UTC
  • REDEEMWill Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election?$0.00Jul 4, 00:24 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.45May 23, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$19.39May 18, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$8.95May 16, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$15.90May 15, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$30.60May 15, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$54.16May 13, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$38.77May 12, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$57.53May 11, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$39.03May 10, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$53.02May 9, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$38.41May 8, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$37.61May 7, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$35.78May 6, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$55.60May 5, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$42.67May 4, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$26.95May 3, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$34.27May 2, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100
read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal
review

12 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.

Resolved-only track record
block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity28 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence3 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry11 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk60 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
12
Avg trade size
$12.02
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Apr 11, 10:25 UTC
Last active
Jul 4, 00:49 UTC
Win rate sample
1 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 21:38:51 UTC·src:Polymarket Data