Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
Probability
71¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$1.2K
Liquidity
$27.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4600.9h
- 07:06SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 4601h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 68¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 68¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 68¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 68¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 68¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 68¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 71¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 71¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Associated PressNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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