Fearful-Guess
0x0d0e53504037eb8bfc5626f8748d7789dbbc4068
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$265.56
Total PnL
$-601.80
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?
165 shares @ 54.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$165.00
$75.82
- YES
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?
55 shares @ 56.7¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$54.31
$23.11
- YES
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?
25 shares @ 71.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$24.61
$6.86
- YES
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?
15 shares @ 83.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$14.93
$2.48
- YES
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
5 shares @ 3.5¢·now 78.4¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$3.92
$3.75
- YES
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
5 shares @ 14.5¢·now 26.3¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.31
$0.59
- YES
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?
55 shares @ 35.1¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.63
$-18.69
- YES
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?
25 shares @ 13.7¢·now 0.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.15
$-3.28
- YES
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?
55 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.14
$-0.60
- YES
Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?
25 shares @ 10.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.09
$-2.53
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?$70.00Jun 11, 14:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Democratic Party of Korea win 8 or 9 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?$10.00Jun 4, 17:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?$9.99May 20, 00:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$10.00May 20, 00:17 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$11.45May 13, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?$5.00May 12, 15:58 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.29May 10, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.32May 9, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?$130.00May 7, 22:50 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.91May 7, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?$75.00May 5, 07:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?$35.00May 5, 00:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at least 250k?$10.00May 1, 23:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in April?$5.00May 1, 11:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in April?$120.00May 1, 07:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in Miami be less than $1,180,000 on April 30?$35.00Apr 30, 14:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.6%?$5.00Apr 30, 12:21 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.71Apr 30, 05:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?$5.00Apr 30, 02:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill one person dissent the April Fed decision?$20.00Apr 30, 00:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $1.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 24, 09:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 11, 14:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.