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MacroMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 28, 2026

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$1.4K

Liquidity

$31.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

-5.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:59
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 58h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Expiry in 58h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 58 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 58.0h

    HIGH
  • 13:59Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 58h with open resolution ambiguity.

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.6pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -9.7pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.3pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.4pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.4pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.7pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.2pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 28, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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