Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$1.4K
Liquidity
$31.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 58h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Expiry in 58h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 58 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 58.0h
- 13:59SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 58h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.6pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.7pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.3pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.4pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.4pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.7pp
to 1¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 2¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
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