Quarterly-Warrant
0x0e4e7db565ed1c78f87b94c364c8a703b8975bf4
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
30
Open notional
$6.7K
Total PnL
$137.57
Realised
$51.66
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
2491 shares @ 85.2¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.1K
$-16.58
- NO
EU dissolves before 2027?
1800 shares @ 95.2¢·now 97.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.8K
$44.38
- NO
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
351 shares @ 75.4¢·now 86.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$301.79
$37.26
- NO
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
300 shares @ 71.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$264.00
$51.00
- NO
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?
221 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$208.84
$9.94
- NO
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
203 shares @ 98.3¢·now 98.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$200.92
$0.92
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
200 shares @ 83.0¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$192.50
$26.50
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
200 shares @ 87.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$190.60
$16.60
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
200 shares @ 70.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$185.00
$45.00
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
200 shares @ 82.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$185.00
$21.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.11Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 19, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.10Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.