Far-Off-Fugato
0x0e5f75a5101cc7618649344b6e356eb2a2b86fa5
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$33.33
Total PnL
$-64.40
Realised
$-1.08
Win rate
0%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
67 shares @ 6.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$21.63
$17.63
- NO
Will Valérie Pécresse announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
3 shares @ 90.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Apr 23, 2027$3.05
$0.05
- YES
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
5 shares @ 53.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$2.98
$0.33
- NO
UK Recession in 2026?
3 shares @ 81.3¢·now 89.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$2.74
$0.24
- YES
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
8 shares @ 35.5¢·now 19.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.67
$-1.33
- YES
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
48 shares @ 2.1¢·now 2.6¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$1.26
$0.26
- NO
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
71 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during Pennsylvania events?
59 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
31 shares @ 71.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-22.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
25 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Valérie Pécresse announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?$3.01Jul 19, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUK Recession in 2026?$1.51Jul 19, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win on 2026-07-02?$2.01Jul 2, 21:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$3.93Jul 2, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-02?$2.00Jul 2, 20:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$2.21Jun 30, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$2.00Jun 28, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$10.12Jun 28, 14:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$10.02Jun 28, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?$3.08Jun 28, 14:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?$4.94Jun 27, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?$4.03Jun 24, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?$3.00Jun 23, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during Pennsylvania events?$1.56Jun 23, 19:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$0.00Jun 23, 19:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$4.62Jun 23, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$1.01Jun 23, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$1.03Jun 23, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$1.02Jun 23, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.05Jun 22, 22:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $3.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 24, 23:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 16:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.