Rotten-Carrot
0x0e8d61f16a2373931ffbfc2993f046e33286dfcc
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$165.00
Total PnL
$-70.5K
Realised
$-4.3K
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- NO
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
200 shares @ 86.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$165.00
$-7.00
- NO
Election certified on January 6?
140131 shares @ 11.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2025$0.00
$-15.8K
- KAMALA
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?
49923 shares @ 16.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-8.3K
- NO
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31?
24257 shares @ 82.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2024$0.00
$-20.0K
- YES
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?
11497 shares @ 47.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.5K
- NO
Ethereum spot ETF approved by June 30?
9100 shares @ 84.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2024$0.00
$-7.6K
- YES
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?
5563 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.4K
- NO
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?
4274 shares @ 83.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-3.6K
- YES
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+
3352 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-72.88
- YES
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?
3110 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-87.85
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$414.36Feb 10, 20:17 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?$4.0KFeb 10, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?$3.1KFeb 8, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?$49.47Feb 7, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?$162.00Feb 7, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?$23.38Feb 7, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?$163.43Feb 7, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?$60.30Feb 7, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?$29.56Feb 7, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?$273.00Feb 7, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?$68.98Feb 6, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?$237.54Feb 5, 23:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?$47.23Feb 5, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?$1.88Feb 5, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?$14.14Feb 5, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?$2.85Feb 4, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?$350.85Feb 4, 04:41 UTC
- REWARD$2.23Feb 4, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the government shutdown last 5 days or more?$1.4KFeb 3, 17:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the government shutdown last 5 days or more?$12.84Feb 3, 17:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $577.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 2, 17:09 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 10, 20:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".