Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-4.6pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$0.00
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 4, 2024
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Primaryby taking an average of Kamala and Trump's odds in the 12-hour period between noon (12 PM ET) and midnight (12 AM ET) onLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 4, 2024
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Primaryby taking an average of Kamala and Trump's odds in the 12-hour period between noon (12 PM ET) and midnight (12 AM ET) onLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Verification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election? State: Resolved NO — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 14:37SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
-4.6pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Kamala" if Kamala Harris is the odds-favorite on Polymarket the day before the election. This market will resolve to "Trump" if Donald Trump is the odds-favorite the day before the election. The odds-favorite the day before the election will be determined by taking an average of Kamala and Trump's odds in the 12-hour period between noon (12 PM ET) and midnight (12 AM ET) on November 4, 2024. The average will be calculated using prices in every 10 minute interval within the 12-hour period, and averaging them once midnight has passed. This market description will be updated with those data points and averages once they have been calculated. The resolution source for this market is https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024, specifically the markets for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
electionReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "election" — matched the Politics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?"?
As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 14:37:12 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -4.6pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Nov 4, 2024 (2024-11-04T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $7.0M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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