Functional-Biosphere
0x0ef6621f4b8bef3b94bee01aa04240ae7b7b198b
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
45
Open notional
$1.02
Total PnL
$-84.22
Realised
$2.87
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
12 shares @ 17.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.52
$-1.48
- YES
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
333 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.50
$-1.50
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
4530 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-7.53
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?
2710 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.42
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in January 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Caroline van der Plas become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$1.53Jan 12, 21:26 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - January 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET$0.00Jan 12, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET$1.00Jan 12, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tim Walz resign by January 31?$2.00Jan 12, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother US strike on Venezuela by January 17?$2.00Jan 12, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro mugshot released by January 16?$2.00Jan 12, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?$1.00Jan 12, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025?$1.00Jan 12, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in January 2026?$2.00Jan 12, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $200 in January?$2.00Jan 12, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?$1.00Jan 12, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?$1.00Jan 12, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?$1.00Jan 12, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Caroline van der Plas become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?$1.00Jan 12, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Klaas Dijkhoff become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?$1.00Jan 12, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYLisa Cook out as Fed Governor by February 28?$2.00Jan 12, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?$2.00Jan 12, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - January 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$1.22Jan 12, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting?$2.00Jan 12, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 12?$1.00Jan 12, 16:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 9, 22:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 12, 21:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.