Rough-Convention
0x0f35956f4ef4a65e037c960a1f86ab6e3c2666d7
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$52.96
Total PnL
$-2.98
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
140 shares @ 6.4¢·now 6.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$8.83
$-0.14
- YES
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
39 shares @ 10.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.72
$-0.20
- YES
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
195 shares @ 1.9¢·now 1.8¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$3.60
$-0.10
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas governor race in 2026?
69 shares @ 5.7¢·now 5.2¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.57
$-0.38
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
37 shares @ 10.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.53
$-0.19
- YES
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?
64 shares @ 5.7¢·now 5.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.47
$-0.16
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?
77 shares @ 5.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.45
$-0.38
- YES
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?
126 shares @ 2.9¢·now 2.7¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$3.41
$-0.21
- YES
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
65 shares @ 5.7¢·now 5.2¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$3.37
$-0.32
- YES
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
61 shares @ 4.4¢·now 5.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$3.37
$0.67
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$2.82Jul 29, 09:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?$4.31Jul 29, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House$3.06Jul 29, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?$3.87Jul 29, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?$3.87Jul 28, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$3.56Jul 28, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Arkansas governor race in 2026?$4.09Jul 28, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$3.87Jul 28, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$3.88Jul 28, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?$3.84Jul 28, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?$3.84Jul 28, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?$3.98Jul 28, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?$4.16Jul 28, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?$3.65Jul 28, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?$5.65Jul 28, 21:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
15 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 15
- Avg trade size
- $3.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 21:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 09:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.