0x0fa25657d1dd7d5152ce9f5f0e28a696549905aa
0x0fa25657d1dd7d5152ce9f5f0e28a696549905aa
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
156
Open notional
$2.3K
Total PnL
$28.95
Realised
$97.57
Win rate
71%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 156- NO
Blue tsunami in 2026?
405 shares @ 51.9¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$224.78
$14.67
- NO
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?
130 shares @ 77.1¢·now 92.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$120.70
$20.49
- NO
Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?
130 shares @ 77.3¢·now 78.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$102.05
$1.50
- NO
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.?
294 shares @ 11.0¢·now 30.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$88.20
$55.86
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
200 shares @ 49.4¢·now 43.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$87.00
$-11.80
- YES
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
150 shares @ 49.7¢·now 52.5¢·exp Oct 24, 2027$78.75
$4.25
- YES
Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
200 shares @ 18.8¢·now 30.9¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$61.80
$24.15
- NO
Will SBF appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
73 shares @ 81.0¢·now 75.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$55.08
$-4.08
- NO
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
60 shares @ 73.3¢·now 85.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$51.30
$7.33
- NO
Will Olivier Faure be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
55 shares @ 77.8¢·now 89.4¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$49.17
$6.37
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?$1.65Jul 28, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Drone" during earnings call?$38.36Jul 28, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Third Party Seller" during earnings call?$11.34Jul 28, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "China" during earnings call?$27.50Jul 28, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Supply Chain" during earnings call?$23.34Jul 28, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Tariff" during earnings call?$17.62Jul 28, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ken Martin cease to be DNC Chair by December 31, 2026?$2.82Jul 28, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$4.72Jul 28, 16:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?$3.53Jul 28, 14:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?$5.65Jul 28, 14:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$2.70Jul 28, 14:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$2.65Jul 28, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matt Olson lead the MLB in doubles for the 2026 regular season?$4.09Jul 28, 13:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?$4.60Jul 28, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matt Olson lead the MLB in doubles for the 2026 regular season?$8.18Jul 28, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$3.45Jul 28, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$11.32Jul 28, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$11.55Jul 28, 09:57 UTC
- MERGEWill Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$2.00Jul 28, 08:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Brennan be arrested before 2027?$3.25Jul 28, 05:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $8.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 17:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 16:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.