Thin-Harbour
0x0feb3acab4cdfad52e602c4fa08547434256efed
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
145
Open notional
$74.37
Total PnL
$-116.66
Realised
$0.84
Win rate
46%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 145- YES
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
6 shares @ 54.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.25
$2.25
- NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of July 20 2026?
3 shares @ 34.0¢·now 93.8¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$2.76
$1.76
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 86.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.17
$0.17
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
3 shares @ 80.9¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.08
$-0.31
- NO
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?
3 shares @ 72.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2026$1.97
$-0.03
- YES
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
11 shares @ 18.5¢·now 18.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$1.95
$-0.05
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?
3 shares @ 33.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.86
$0.86
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 51.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.82
$-0.18
- YES
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
3 shares @ 34.0¢·now 59.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.76
$0.76
- YES
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
6 shares @ 32.6¢·now 23.4¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.43
$-0.57
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYClub Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 5.5$1.02Jul 23, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5$1.03Jul 23, 22:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-07-23?$1.92Jul 23, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FK Auda win on 2026-07-23?$1.02Jul 23, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-07-23?$1.02Jul 23, 19:06 UTC
- REDEEMSan Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves$1.59Jul 23, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$1.04Jul 23, 16:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$1.96Jul 23, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$1.00Jul 23, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$1.03Jul 23, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves$1.02Jul 23, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$1.04Jul 23, 16:35 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$2.86Jul 23, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$1.05Jul 23, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$1.04Jul 23, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.00Jul 23, 16:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$3.84Jul 23, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$1.01Jul 23, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$1.01Jul 23, 14:57 UTC
- REDEEMLivesport Prague Open: Mai Hontama vs Lilli Tagger$2.43Jul 23, 14:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $1.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 17:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 22:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.