Fabulous-Lark-Hippopotamus
0x10445fd428f2293dec2d117f3cf75f9c57d88ceb
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$524.05
Total PnL
$-376.41
Realised
$-4.51
Win rate
23%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
85 shares @ 18.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.34
$8.06
- YES
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
173 shares @ 15.4¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$14.73
$-12.02
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
11 shares @ 91.0¢·now 97.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$11.08
$0.71
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
73 shares @ 17.4¢·now 14.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$10.55
$-2.10
- NO
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?
11 shares @ 88.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.42
$0.51
- NO
FK Dynamo Kyiv vs. PAOK: Both Teams to Score
18 shares @ 51.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$9.16
$-0.18
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
19 shares @ 26.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.02
$3.98
- NO
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
17 shares @ 50.3¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.93
$0.54
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
12 shares @ 73.9¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.81
$-0.17
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
314 shares @ 2.9¢·now 2.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.65
$-0.56
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSegovia: Yi Zhou vs Luka Pavlovic$3.50Jul 22, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYLivesport Prague Open: Ayla Aksu vs Daria Snigur$2.08Jul 22, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Tigers FC 1 - 3 Western Sydney Wanderers FC?$4.71Jul 22, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYTigers FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5$2.11Jul 22, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Bucheon FC 1995 0 - 1 FC Anyang?$5.22Jul 22, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Hundred, Women: London Spirit vs Manchester Super Giants$4.30Jul 22, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYThe Hundred, Women: London Spirit vs Manchester Super Giants$2.66Jul 22, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tigers FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC end in a draw?$5.58Jul 22, 05:12 UTC
- REDEEMODI Series West Indies vs. New Zealand: West Indies vs New Zealand$25.56Jul 22, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYTianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC: O/U 2.5$3.08Jul 22, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?$2.09Jul 22, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYClub Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5$3.01Jul 22, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CS Cienciano win on 2026-07-22?$4.63Jul 22, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-07-11?$3.75Jul 22, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pohang Steelers FC win on 2026-07-22?$4.10Jul 22, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CA Boca Juniors vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw?$5.08Jul 22, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYFC Seoul vs. Pohang Steelers FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5$5.54Jul 22, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tigers FC win on 2026-07-22?$4.80Jul 22, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Noah FA win on 2026-07-23?$2.46Jul 22, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Chicago Fire FC 1 - 2 Vancouver Whitecaps FC?$2.89Jul 22, 04:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
23% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
31 closed markets, 23% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $4.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 21:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 07:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.