Urban-Spruce
0x1086771735622e6d38e22aeb939ef2bc6f317b3c
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
102
Open notional
$4.5K
Total PnL
$-2.6K
Realised
$-817.69
Win rate
23%
60 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 102- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?
750 shares @ 93.6¢·now 91.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$682.49
$-19.78
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?
532 shares @ 87.7¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$508.68
$42.04
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
2471 shares @ 57.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$506.55
$-901.91
- NO
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
337 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$337.29
$6.87
- NO
Human moon landing in 2026?
333 shares @ 95.3¢·now 98.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$327.77
$10.79
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
313 shares @ 95.5¢·now 97.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$305.67
$7.04
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
552 shares @ 84.5¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$262.43
$-204.21
- NO
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
193 shares @ 84.1¢·now 74.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$143.72
$-18.60
- NO
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
164 shares @ 95.3¢·now 86.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$141.85
$-14.68
- NO
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
93 shares @ 94.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$93.35
$4.97
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.11Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 9, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
23% win rate over 60 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
60 closed markets, 23% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 18:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 60 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.