Popular-Exhaustion
0x108a02b6421781e2bb269269442d7dee6b9dc378
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$56.02
Total PnL
$-7.96
Realised
$0.59
Win rate
36%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
Will Ségolène Royal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
6 shares @ 99.7¢·now 98.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$5.95
$-0.05
- NO
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
9 shares @ 67.9¢·now 68.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$5.93
$0.06
- NO
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
6 shares @ 86.3¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$5.67
$0.72
- YES
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?
4 shares @ 87.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.14
$0.25
- NO
Will Tyler Kistner be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?
4 shares @ 89.5¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$3.58
$0.34
- NO
Will Carole Delga advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
3 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$3.19
$-0.03
- NO
Will Fabien Roussel advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
3 shares @ 99.2¢·now 97.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$3.14
$-0.05
- NO
Human moon landing in 2026?
2 shares @ 92.8¢·now 97.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.11
$0.11
- NO
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
2 shares @ 99.3¢·now 98.2¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$2.09
$-0.02
- NO
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?
2 shares @ 92.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.06
$0.02
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?$0.02Jul 8, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?$0.02Jul 8, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?$0.03Jul 8, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?$0.13Jul 8, 02:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Graham Platner drop out by July 7?$0.27Jul 7, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.10Jul 7, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.10Jul 7, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.10Jul 7, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.53Jul 7, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.10Jul 7, 18:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?$0.06Jul 7, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?$0.06Jul 7, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?$0.04Jul 7, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?$0.06Jul 7, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?$0.04Jul 7, 18:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?$0.06Jul 7, 18:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?$0.06Jul 7, 18:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?$0.04Jul 7, 18:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?$0.04Jul 7, 18:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?$0.06Jul 7, 18:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 18:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 8, 04:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.