Thick-Dare-Snarl
0x118dac4b4f36752ac53664db27189a89461267a8
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$235.89
Total PnL
$-231.05
Realised
$-160.38
Win rate
10%
29 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
28 shares @ 89.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$27.96
$2.69
- YES
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
126 shares @ 22.4¢·now 20.4¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$25.68
$-2.43
- YES
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
69 shares @ 34.6¢·now 33.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$23.01
$-0.76
- YES
Will AfD win 26-28 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
75 shares @ 33.3¢·now 25.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$19.13
$-5.87
- NO
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
18 shares @ 88.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$18.17
$2.10
- NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?
20 shares @ 88.6¢·now 88.3¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$17.79
$-0.06
- NO
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
18 shares @ 87.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$15.11
$-0.18
- YES
Will Kenneth Östberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västmanland?
20 shares @ 74.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$14.80
$0.00
- NO
Will Christian Democrats (KD) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?
25 shares @ 49.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$14.13
$1.88
- NO
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%?
14 shares @ 69.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$9.25
$-0.28
Recent activity
- TRADESELLSweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to V or C?$8.80Aug 14, 06:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$7.81Aug 14, 06:05 UTC
- TRADESELLSweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to V or C?$8.80Aug 14, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%?$9.63Aug 14, 05:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%?$20.87Aug 14, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mikael Andersson Elfgren be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västmanland?$1.25Aug 14, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mikael Andersson Elfgren be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västmanland?$1.39Aug 14, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$0.38Aug 14, 05:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$61.70Aug 14, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYSweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to V or C?$9.25Aug 14, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYSweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to V or C?$10.20Aug 14, 04:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?$3.07Aug 14, 04:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 35–40%?$3.90Aug 14, 03:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lars Holmin be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västra Götaland?$5.40Aug 14, 03:34 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?$22.61Aug 14, 03:25 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?$2.38Aug 14, 03:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$30.80Aug 14, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$31.20Aug 14, 03:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?$25.00Aug 14, 03:17 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?$3.80Aug 14, 03:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
10% win rate over 29 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $11.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 13, 21:22 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 06:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 29 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.