Impartial-Sailboat
0x11f3c56d0583665247e5a494e8f7709c759ed859
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$24.5K
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$112.06
Win rate
73%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
3750 shares @ 92.2¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$3.6K
$124.38
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
3500 shares @ 85.3¢·now 90.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.2K
$182.51
- NO
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?
3108 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.1K
$13.49
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
1791 shares @ 98.3¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.8K
$22.94
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?
1490 shares @ 93.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.4K
$22.40
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
1250 shares @ 92.2¢·now 94.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.2K
$25.95
- NO
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by July 31, 2026?
1108 shares @ 96.4¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.1K
$34.96
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?
1089 shares @ 96.5¢·now 98.6¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$1.1K
$23.16
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?
1084 shares @ 94.3¢·now 95.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.0K
$14.55
- NO
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?
1066 shares @ 86.9¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$86.32
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026?$1.00Jul 29, 11:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026?$0.95Jul 29, 10:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026?$10.00Jul 29, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$90.00Jul 29, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$477.50Jul 29, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$716.25Jul 29, 03:52 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?$302.73Jul 28, 20:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?$0.80Jul 28, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$717.75Jul 28, 18:24 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$3.0KJul 28, 18:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$64.69Jul 28, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$8.37Jul 28, 16:56 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$205.94Jul 28, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?$3.4KJul 28, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?$279.16Jul 28, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$41.71Jul 28, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?$256.06Jul 28, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1.28Jul 28, 05:44 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $417.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 11:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.