Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Probability
42¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$1.0K
Liquidity
$32.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5999.0h
- 01:00SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5999h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 39¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 39¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 39¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 39¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 38¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 38¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 38¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 39¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 39¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 39¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 39¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 38¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 38¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 39¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 39¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).