Polite-Teen
0x1232e5b39f0fe5ace85c1ab9d84aaf1a22776158
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
96
Open notional
$140.40
Total PnL
$-270.03
Realised
$-8.27
Win rate
2%
87 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 96- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
560 shares @ 13.6¢·now 20.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$114.42
$38.10
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
588 shares @ 2.5¢·now 1.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$10.28
$-4.76
- YES
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
100 shares @ 14.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.50
$-7.50
- YES
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
100 shares @ 9.0¢·now 5.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.40
$-3.60
- NO
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
50 shares @ 16.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.27
$-5.72
- YES
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
1011 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.52
$-3.54
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
1850 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.55
- YES
Will Lambda have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?
1342 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.31
- YES
Will Stripe have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?
1195 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-23.57
- YES
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
1030 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-4.71
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Aug 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 9, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 8, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 5, 02:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 2, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 31, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 30, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 87 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
4 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
87 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 4
- Avg trade size
- $32.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 08:06 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 87 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.