Foolhardy-Brace
0x1268eae4c32bd88d64ac2e5fb5363f6f6ed30bc8
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$22.17
Total PnL
$-116.81
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
38 shares @ 53.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.51
$-8.49
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
125 shares @ 16.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.38
$-10.63
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
1 shares @ 97.3¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
7 shares @ 14.0¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.27
$-0.72
- YES
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)
1667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
723 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani not win the 2025 New York City mayoral election?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Trump out as President by June 30?
214 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-14.98
- YES
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?
200 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the next Dutch government be another combination?
22 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$0.00Jul 13, 11:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$29.41Jul 13, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?$20.00Mar 24, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?$40.00Mar 24, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$20.00Mar 24, 14:03 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by March 2?$1.02Mar 19, 11:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?$25.64Mar 19, 11:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?$39.41Mar 19, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Call your Democrat" or "Call a Democrat" during the next White House Press Briefing?$5.00Mar 18, 23:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before 2027?$20.00Mar 18, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by June 30?$15.00Mar 18, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)$5.00Mar 18, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?$5.00Mar 1, 23:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 2?$1.00Mar 1, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$10.00Mar 1, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$10.00Mar 1, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?$20.00Mar 1, 23:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?$2.00Mar 1, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMKaty Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31?$2.00Mar 1, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zcash flip Monero by December 31?$2.00Mar 1, 23:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $5.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 29, 22:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 11:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.