0x13b72e0aa620978c720a2bc87c1b1c68ee42c98f
0x13b72e0aa620978c720a2bc87c1b1c68ee42c98f
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
67
Open notional
$2.5K
Total PnL
$-9.8K
Realised
$-369.11
Win rate
25%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 67- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
2899 shares @ 24.8¢·now 22.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$662.33
$-56.81
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
2597 shares @ 11.7¢·now 23.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$606.43
$302.58
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
952 shares @ 47.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$423.60
$-23.80
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
263 shares @ 65.4¢·now 66.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$174.69
$2.76
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
1917 shares @ 24.2¢·now 6.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$124.62
$-339.58
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
252 shares @ 47.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$109.57
$-8.82
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
114 shares @ 90.5¢·now 93.9¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$106.84
$3.82
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
2203 shares @ 20.8¢·now 4.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$100.25
$-359.17
- NO
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
84 shares @ 62.6¢·now 61.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$51.72
$-0.80
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
90 shares @ 40.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$41.09
$4.97
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.05Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$1.52Jul 28, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$5.20Jul 28, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.99Jul 28, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$7.10Jul 28, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.09Jul 28, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$1.24Jul 28, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$34.95Jul 28, 03:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$9.72Jul 27, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.00Jul 27, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.89Jul 27, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.05Jul 27, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.50Jul 27, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.71Jul 27, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.05Jul 27, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.43Jul 27, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.42Jul 27, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.64Jul 27, 18:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$11.24Jul 27, 16:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $20.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 12:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.