Playful-Settler
0x13c27d1b038c20484ef3d8cf7e66725fcfccb7c8
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$4.7K
Total PnL
$1.3K
Realised
$1.5K
Win rate
38%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
999 shares @ 61.4¢·now 73.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$729.11
$116.24
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
851 shares @ 87.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$702.07
$-38.29
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
916 shares @ 54.8¢·now 73.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$673.25
$170.90
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
999 shares @ 40.3¢·now 37.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$369.63
$-33.18
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
400 shares @ 64.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$362.00
$106.00
- NO
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
383 shares @ 43.4¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$201.07
$34.89
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
600 shares @ 61.9¢·now 30.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$179.97
$-191.51
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
400 shares @ 34.7¢·now 43.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$175.20
$36.40
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
225 shares @ 55.9¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$174.71
$48.72
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
164 shares @ 62.0¢·now 97.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$159.49
$57.81
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Aug 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 14, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?$45.00Aug 13, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$28.48Aug 13, 12:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 11, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?$1.01Aug 10, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?$136.38Aug 10, 03:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 10, 00:13 UTC
- REWARD$2.15Aug 10, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?$26.77Aug 9, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?$4.03Aug 9, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?$19.60Aug 9, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?$10.84Aug 9, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?$53.00Aug 9, 17:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?$27.94Aug 9, 17:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$124.77Aug 9, 17:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 9, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $83.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 5, 10:43 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.