Vigilant-Cornflakes
0x145bd923f24666dc8055398361c59feec2a78f5c
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
119
Open notional
$245.93
Total PnL
$-129.40
Realised
$2.26
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 119- YES
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?
27 shares @ 12.5¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$26.98
$23.58
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?
10 shares @ 72.7¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.02
$1.57
- NO
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
13 shares @ 42.2¢·now 61.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.00
$2.46
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
10 shares @ 59.5¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$7.65
$1.70
- YES
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027?
8 shares @ 77.5¢·now 93.8¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$7.55
$1.31
- NO
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
8 shares @ 75.4¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$7.54
$1.56
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?
10 shares @ 29.3¢·now 70.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$7.00
$4.07
- NO
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
9 shares @ 68.6¢·now 80.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.81
$0.97
- NO
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?
8 shares @ 80.1¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.68
$0.56
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?
7 shares @ 81.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$6.68
$1.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 24?$1.13Jun 24, 10:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.71Jun 24, 10:17 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$0.20Jun 24, 10:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$1.03Jun 24, 07:37 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$0.80Jun 24, 07:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX have fewer than 11 launches in June 2026?$1.03Jun 23, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jun 23, 18:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?$2.80Jun 23, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.05Jun 23, 13:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.39Jun 23, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?$1.04Jun 22, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLSPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22?$0.26Jun 22, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30?$1.04Jun 22, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.14Jun 22, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in June?$1.00Jun 22, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22?$1.02Jun 22, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.24Jun 22, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? $1.00Jun 22, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?$1.74Jun 22, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.85Jun 22, 06:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 10:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.