Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?
Probability
76¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$271.02
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1546h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 23.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1545.6h
- 08:55SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1546h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 76¢.
Biggest hourly move: +12.5pp at 4d ago (to 80¢).
Show top 8 of 43 hourly moves
- 07:00 · +7.0pp → 76¢
- 2d ago · +8.0pp → 76¢
- 3d ago · -7.5pp → 69¢
- 3d ago · +11.0pp → 77¢
- 3d ago · +10.5pp → 76¢
- 4d ago · +10.5pp → 77¢
- 4d ago · +8.0pp → 80¢
- 4d ago · +12.5pp → 80¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, reLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (23.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.