Feisty-Lamp
0x14a3ce7738c7faa857126822b4ef4cf81195c186
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
111
Open notional
$1.9K
Total PnL
$-319.87
Realised
$-22.80
Win rate
0%
105 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 111- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?
659 shares @ 91.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$616.48
$16.48
- NO
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?
580 shares @ 69.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$437.68
$37.68
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?
430 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$409.46
$9.46
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
440 shares @ 91.0¢·now 89.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$393.85
$-6.15
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
10 shares @ 77.5¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.60
$0.80
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
10 shares @ 44.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$7.15
$2.75
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
10 shares @ 62.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$2.75
$-3.45
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
3 shares @ 32.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$2.10
$1.19
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
10 shares @ 23.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.05
$-1.25
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
10 shares @ 58.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.45
$-5.35
Recent activity
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$10.21Aug 4, 18:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$9.08Jul 31, 18:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$6.00Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2026-07-28?$10.00Jul 28, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2026-07-28?$3.41Jul 28, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-07-28?$3.92Jul 28, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz end in a draw?$2.90Jul 28, 19:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?$1.84Jul 28, 04:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 28?$3.18Jul 28, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?$2.16Jul 28, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 28?$3.62Jul 28, 04:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill AC Goianiense win on 2026-07-27?$10.13Jul 28, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AC Goianiense vs. Operário Ferroviário EC end in a draw?$1.77Jul 27, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AC Goianiense win on 2026-07-27?$7.99Jul 27, 23:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?$2.95Jul 27, 06:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 27?$3.26Jul 27, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?$3.22Jul 27, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 27?$3.62Jul 27, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?$10.00Jul 27, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?$2.61Jul 26, 14:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 105 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
105 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $3.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 05:51 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 18:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 105 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.