Blank-Initialize
0x151a4b7f606d8489cf09612544c0648a538d0ece
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
61
Open notional
$7.6K
Total PnL
$-786.32
Realised
$110.43
Win rate
71%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 61- YES
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
2217 shares @ 97.4¢·now 93.8¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$2.1K
$-79.84
- NO
Brex IPO before 2027?
1367 shares @ 96.2¢·now 98.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$36.02
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
564 shares @ 93.3¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$538.31
$12.03
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
500 shares @ 97.9¢·now 98.4¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$491.75
$2.25
- YES
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
685 shares @ 85.9¢·now 71.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$486.39
$-102.22
- NO
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?
390 shares @ 93.3¢·now 98.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$385.19
$21.03
- NO
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
306 shares @ 92.9¢·now 93.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$286.81
$2.57
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
300 shares @ 86.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$259.50
$1.50
- YES
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
1175 shares @ 72.7¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$229.04
$-624.54
- NO
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?
241 shares @ 54.6¢·now 80.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$193.04
$61.35
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.06Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$100.00Jul 20, 14:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBrex IPO before 2027?$155.24Jul 13, 11:38 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $99.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.