Unripe-Exhaustion
0x154e1febdde45605dc2ef3f83a2e1905d1c2911f
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$2.2K
Total PnL
$-18.48
Realised
$35.27
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
200 shares @ 94.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$199.90
$10.40
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
200 shares @ 85.5¢·now 85.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$171.00
$0.00
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
168 shares @ 83.5¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$149.97
$9.97
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
150 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$149.93
$20.93
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
150 shares @ 77.3¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$114.75
$-1.25
- NO
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
100 shares @ 96.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$99.80
$3.80
- NO
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
100 shares @ 86.5¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$99.60
$13.10
- YES
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
100 shares @ 95.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$98.80
$3.76
- NO
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
200 shares @ 77.3¢·now 48.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$96.00
$-58.50
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
100 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$93.50
$0.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 14+ times in August?$12.62Jul 31, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$90.00Jul 31, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 5-7 times in August?$3.50Jul 31, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August?$47.00Jul 31, 07:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude go down 12+ times in July?$868.80Jul 31, 02:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude go down 9-11 times in July?$73.28Jul 31, 02:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 31, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August?$0.93Jul 30, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude go down 12+ times in July?$117.85Jul 30, 10:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 30, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$39.50Jul 29, 10:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$6.63Jul 28, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$38.04Jul 28, 11:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$2.87Jul 28, 11:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 12+ times in July?$20.54Jul 28, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 12+ times in July?$60.08Jul 28, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude go down 12+ times in July?$39.64Jul 28, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude go down 9-11 times in July?$171.81Jul 28, 10:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $29.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 09:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 14:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.