Nifty-Catamaran
0x1574d715583f97ee03175f4f132d331720967b2a
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$197.60
Total PnL
$-46.93
Realised
$-0.10
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?
300 shares @ 16.9¢·now 15.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$46.05
$-4.55
- NO
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
80 shares @ 62.0¢·now 41.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$32.76
$-16.78
- NO
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
37 shares @ 60.0¢·now 80.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$29.68
$7.62
- NO
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
68 shares @ 32.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.20
$2.39
- YES
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
1769 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.27
$-11.03
- YES
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
10 shares @ 82.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.85
$0.65
- NO
AI bubble burst in 2026?
10 shares @ 83.0¢·now 83.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.32
$0.02
- NO
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
10 shares @ 63.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.75
$1.45
- YES
Rippling IPO before 2027?
47 shares @ 18.6¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.65
$-2.17
- NO
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
13 shares @ 77.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$5.65
$-4.35
Recent activity
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$3.38Jul 19, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Argentina?$1.05Jul 19, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?$1.04Jul 19, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.05Jul 19, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$1.04Jul 19, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?$1.05Jul 19, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5$1.04Jul 19, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Argentina?$1.05Jul 19, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?$1.04Jul 19, 12:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina?$2.09Jul 19, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$2.04Jul 19, 12:14 UTC
- TRADESELLMoonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?$19.61Jul 19, 12:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$10.61Jul 19, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?$45.67Jul 19, 03:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?$6.62Jul 19, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: O/U 2.5 AND Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Argentina?$3.00Jul 18, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: France 2 - 3 England?$3.14Jul 18, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: O/U 2.5 AND Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?$3.99Jul 18, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: O/U 2.5 AND Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Argentina?$3.99Jul 18, 12:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: O/U 2.5 AND Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?$4.00Jul 18, 12:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $8.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 02:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 22:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.