Writhing-Round
0x1583c5d3f2b55b3ec71c599c6b90d328d49cbdde
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
98
Open notional
$1.4K
Total PnL
$-513.71
Realised
$-268.81
Win rate
34%
29 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 98- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
200 shares @ 54.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$113.00
$5.00
- YES
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
194 shares @ 64.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$84.48
$-39.81
- NO
Will Euphoria be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?
100 shares @ 80.4¢·now 73.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$73.75
$-6.65
- YES
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
200 shares @ 55.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$59.00
$-51.00
- NO
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
87 shares @ 56.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$51.15
$2.19
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
50 shares @ 78.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$38.75
$-0.25
- NO
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on August 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 81.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$36.60
$4.20
- NO
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 62.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.25
$5.25
- YES
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
50 shares @ 74.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.75
$-1.25
- NO
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
50 shares @ 67.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.50
$2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?$1.96Aug 11, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai or Speed be eliminated by the void?$11.40Aug 11, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$37.00Aug 11, 14:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump and Putin not meet?$19.53Aug 11, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?$15.60Aug 11, 13:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rafael Jodar Win ATP Montreal$12.76Aug 11, 13:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai or Speed be eliminated by the void?$9.60Aug 11, 12:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill American Doctor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?$16.00Aug 11, 12:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spirit Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?$9.47Aug 11, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?$3.06Aug 11, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$10.80Aug 11, 12:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?$2.19Aug 11, 12:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?$27.00Aug 11, 12:24 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$100.00Aug 11, 12:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oliver Tree be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?$2.90Aug 11, 11:57 UTC
- TRADESELLUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?$23.00Aug 11, 11:39 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by December 31?$26.30Aug 11, 11:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nuisance Bear win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?$9.28Aug 11, 10:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai or Speed die to a pillager?$13.81Aug 11, 10:08 UTC
- TRADESELLKash Patel out by December 31?$6.58Aug 11, 09:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
34% win rate over 29 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $17.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 00:33 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 14:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 29 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.