Exotic-Fort
0x164705020a149631531d299fb0ed1fb3b03a6f61
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$39.38
Total PnL
$-17.8K
Realised
$-7.1K
Win rate
8%
156 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
45 shares @ 36.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$13.28
$-2.92
- YES
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 56.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.60
$-4.60
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
40 shares @ 14.0¢·now 12.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.94
$-0.66
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
50 shares @ 13.1¢·now 8.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.17
$-2.37
- YES
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
20 shares @ 50.4¢·now 13.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.73
$-7.35
- YES
Will Tuyo launch a token by March 31, 2027?
6 shares @ 33.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$2.56
$0.66
- YES
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
4 shares @ 52.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$2.50
$0.50
- YES
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?
10 shares @ 68.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.06
$-4.94
- YES
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 35.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.54
$-2.36
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
18565 shares @ 25.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.8K
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Aug 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 17, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$0.00Aug 16, 14:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$1.69Aug 16, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$1.03Aug 16, 14:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$0.00Aug 16, 13:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$1.49Aug 16, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$1.02Aug 16, 13:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 14, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$5.13Aug 13, 11:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$0.71Aug 13, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$4.06Aug 13, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$1.02Aug 13, 11:57 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 11, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$6.94Aug 10, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$5.88Aug 10, 17:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
63/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 156 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
156 closed markets, 8% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $2.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 3, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 156 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.