Flat-Mailing
0x1668d4b52386c4a3f472f6b045dd615cde9843d5
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
77
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-712.11
Realised
$43.40
Win rate
85%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 77- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
700 shares @ 76.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$346.50
$-185.50
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
700 shares @ 27.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$164.49
$-24.59
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
200 shares @ 79.1¢·now 74.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$148.59
$-9.57
- YES
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
570 shares @ 34.9¢·now 21.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$119.70
$-79.25
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
100 shares @ 91.4¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$92.06
$0.65
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
100 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$90.50
$0.50
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
218 shares @ 40.6¢·now 35.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$77.52
$-11.10
- YES
Discord IPO before 2027?
200 shares @ 46.0¢·now 35.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$71.90
$-20.10
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
23 shares @ 97.5¢·now 97.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$22.49
$0.07
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 90.6¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.15
$0.09
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$18.40Jul 22, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$91.40Jul 22, 09:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$22.42Jul 20, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$90.00Jul 20, 14:15 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$97.50Jul 20, 10:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$54.00Jul 20, 00:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$50.00Jul 19, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$95.10Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$75.00Jul 18, 22:37 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$18.40Jul 18, 22:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$24.60Jul 17, 18:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$53.40Jul 17, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYDiscord IPO before 2027?$0.60Jul 17, 12:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYDiscord IPO before 2027?$29.40Jul 17, 12:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
85% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $23.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.