0x167a807987c8da3aea97bc36cb394fc04d3c91d5
0x167a807987c8da3aea97bc36cb394fc04d3c91d5
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
77
Open notional
$9.2K
Total PnL
$-5.7K
Realised
$-268.43
Win rate
5%
43 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 77- YES
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
799 shares @ 85.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$603.25
$-75.91
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat?
708 shares @ 82.5¢·now 78.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$555.46
$-28.04
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?
759 shares @ 77.4¢·now 72.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$550.62
$-37.56
- YES
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
800 shares @ 70.5¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jan 16, 2027$500.00
$-64.00
- NO
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
757 shares @ 73.5¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jan 16, 2027$465.81
$-90.68
- YES
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.0B?
500 shares @ 93.4¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$449.69
$-17.17
- NO
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
1682 shares @ 31.5¢·now 23.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2028$395.38
$-134.44
- YES
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
400 shares @ 87.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$306.00
$-42.00
- NO
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
641 shares @ 58.8¢·now 47.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$304.47
$-72.57
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?
411 shares @ 77.1¢·now 73.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$299.84
$-16.83
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$15.00Jul 3, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$15.50Jul 3, 11:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$199.41Jul 3, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$199.99Jul 3, 10:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$3.17Jul 3, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?$0.43Jul 3, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?$0.44Jul 3, 10:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$0.66Jul 3, 10:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$20.35Jul 3, 10:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$12.72Jul 3, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$36.67Jul 3, 10:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?$50.70Jul 3, 09:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?$52.00Jul 3, 09:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?$1.00Jul 3, 09:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?$195.19Jul 3, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?$79.87Jul 3, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?$120.12Jul 3, 09:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$197.50Jul 3, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$199.99Jul 3, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026?$9.16Jul 3, 08:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 43 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
43 closed markets, 5% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $59.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 02:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 11:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 43 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.