Exhausted-Warmth
0x17cc33586d0d06851a63cb5074dc7e978a72716d
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$65.46
Total PnL
$-144.00
Realised
$9.97
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
172 shares @ 29.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.90
$-18.10
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
137 shares @ 29.6¢·now 19.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.09
$-13.41
- YES
Iran leadership change by June 30?
139 shares @ 4.6¢·now 2.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.82
$-2.58
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
129 shares @ 8.5¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.65
$-8.35
- YES
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 15?
263 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
245 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-19.60
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
103 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.98
- YES
Will Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
85 shares @ 11.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?
81 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-28.99
- YES
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?
69 shares @ 33.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-22.95
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$11.00Jun 11, 13:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$10.27Jun 11, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$50.00Jun 9, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by December 31?$50.00Jun 9, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30?$6.40Jun 9, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$3.41Jun 9, 22:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill UAE strike Iran by April 30?$5.63Apr 14, 22:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$15.35Apr 14, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$0.00Apr 13, 14:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?$0.00Apr 13, 14:32 UTC
- REDEEMUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$0.00Apr 13, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$40.91Apr 13, 10:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?$40.90Apr 13, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?$17.18Apr 12, 21:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$17.19Apr 12, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$4.32Apr 7, 22:41 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?$4.32Apr 7, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?$28.64Apr 7, 22:08 UTC
- TRADESELLUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?$28.64Apr 7, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?$2.46Apr 7, 22:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $20.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 1, 12:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 11, 13:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.