Exalted-Brink
0x18dfb6341e53563e6345f2a659fedf47d6799c19
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$166.96
Total PnL
$21.83
Realised
$-4.14
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
40 shares @ 73.1¢·now 98.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$39.30
$10.05
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
25 shares @ 82.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$24.96
$4.46
- NO
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
25 shares @ 84.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$20.38
$-0.63
- YES
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
25 shares @ 49.7¢·now 61.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$15.36
$2.94
- YES
Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Aston Villa: Both Teams to Score
15 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$15.00
$7.50
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
25 shares @ 53.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.63
$0.38
- YES
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
20 shares @ 71.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.50
$-0.70
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
12 shares @ 70.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$11.92
$3.52
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
12 shares @ 64.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.42
$1.74
- YES
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
15 shares @ 32.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.15
$-1.65
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?$4.80Aug 15, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYFulham FC vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score$1.60Aug 15, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBorussia Monchengladbach vs. Aston Villa: Both Teams to Score$7.50Aug 15, 14:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$0.00Aug 15, 08:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$0.00Aug 15, 08:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$0.00Aug 15, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$11.24Aug 15, 02:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$9.76Aug 15, 02:28 UTC
- REDEEMHolstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Score$9.98Aug 15, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYHolstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Score$2.46Aug 14, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYHolstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Score$1.64Aug 14, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYHolstein Kiel vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Score$1.29Aug 14, 16:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more?$30.00Aug 14, 12:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$30.27Aug 14, 12:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?$45.00Aug 14, 11:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$50.00Aug 14, 11:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill a tropical cyclone make landfall on Honshu in August 2026?$3.00Aug 14, 06:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?$0.25Aug 14, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$0.32Aug 13, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?$6.88Aug 13, 17:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $7.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 15:19 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 15, 18:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.