DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

• 02
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 8.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

The United States Department of Justice recently opened, and later dropped, a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his handling of renovations to the Federal Reserve buildings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Justice reopens this criminal investigation of Powell, or opens a new criminal investigation of Powell, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell, this will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. An official announcement from the United States Department of Justice that the investigation has been reopened, or that a new investigation against Powell has been opened, will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Statements or reports that the Department of Justice is considering allegations or potential investigative action against Powell will not qualify, unless they explicitly indicate that a criminal investigation into Powell has been reopened or opened. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Department of Justice, including any relevant United States Attorney’s Office; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.