Substantial-Nonsense
0x1919f13395a7d5b12508e55e4fcce34e5a258f92
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
132
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-280.81
Realised
$-1.33
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 132- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16?
2422 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?
1485 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.08
- YES
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?
1333 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?
1333 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?
1333 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?
1250 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10?
1215 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on July 4?
979 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 22?$4.07Jul 22, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 17?$1.03Jul 17, 08:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 16?$1.39Jul 16, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 16?$1.01Jul 16, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on July 14?$0.07Jul 14, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on July 14?$0.19Jul 14, 14:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 14?$4.26Jul 14, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on July 14?$5.19Jul 14, 12:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 14?$0.35Jul 14, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 14?$5.08Jul 14, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 14?$2.04Jul 14, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 12?$1.03Jul 12, 14:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 7?$3.64Jul 7, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 7?$3.09Jul 7, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 7?$3.10Jul 7, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 7?$2.04Jul 7, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 6?$1.02Jul 6, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 6?$1.04Jul 6, 11:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 5?$1.58Jul 5, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 5?$1.02Jul 5, 10:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $2.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 27, 13:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 07:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.