0x198c764990bb83b53e03bc7e90deb99e0814fd1b
0x198c764990bb83b53e03bc7e90deb99e0814fd1b
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$22.81
Total PnL
$3.32
Realised
$0.04
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 86.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.36
$0.45
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?
3 shares @ 98.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.90
$0.04
- NO
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
3 shares @ 95.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.79
$0.11
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
2 shares @ 55.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.29
$1.03
- YES
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 68.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.15
$0.69
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.10
$0.78
- YES
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.09
$1.00
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
1 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.38
$0.07
- NO
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
1 shares @ 93.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.29
$0.08
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 98.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.26
$0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$1.31May 14, 08:14 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$1.41May 13, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?$1.45May 13, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?$1.02May 13, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?$1.79May 13, 11:02 UTC
- TRADESELLPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?$1.97May 13, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?$1.14May 13, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?$2.03May 13, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$1.48May 13, 10:12 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?$1.12May 13, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?$2.31May 13, 06:54 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?$1.08May 13, 06:48 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$1.52May 13, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$1.32May 13, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?$1.44May 13, 04:56 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?$1.62May 13, 04:27 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.30May 13, 03:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.26May 13, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$1.66May 13, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 15, 2026?$2.53May 13, 00:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $1.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 12, 12:09 UTC
- Last active
- May 14, 08:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.